Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society

Research Article

A Comparative Study between Time Series and Machine Learning Technique to Predict Dengue Fever in Dhaka City

Some suggested ARIMA (p, d, q) models for the death rate of dengue in Dhaka city.


ARIMA (p, d, q)	Values of selection criteria
ARIMA (p, d, q)	AIC	RMSE	MAPE	MASE	ACF1	Estimated sigma-square	Log-likelihood

(1, 1, 1)	−254.0	0.0333764	18.3716	1.00984	0.04505	0.001176	128.84
(2, 1, 1)	−252.2	0.0333093	18.5596	1.00011	−0.0649	0.001229	127.44
(3, 1, 1)	−249.8	0.0333832	18.6894	1.04324	−0.0018	0.001088	130.35
(4, 1, 1)	−251.7	0.0322676	17.1489	1.01705	0.00597	0.001037	131.79
(5, 1, 1)	−247.6	0.0325351	17.0940	0.98991	−0.0148	0.00086	135.48
(6, 1, 1)	−251.8	0.0310797	15.2892	1.0335	−0.1053	0.000794	136.80
(7, 1, 1)	−250.2	0.0309437	16.1523	1.05074	−0.0220	0.000911	135.39
(8, 1, 1)	−253.4	0.0294702	16.7713	1.03502	−0.0563	0.000809	136.77
(9, 1, 1)	−251.4	0.029467	16.7901	1.021629	−0.0285	0.0008815	136.74
(10, 1, 1)	−249.7	0.0294027	17.9777	1.03183	−0.0323	0.0008776	136.85
(11, 1, 1)	−251.4	0.0282905	17.8104	1.022737	−0.0212	0.0008125	138.73
(12, 1, 1)	−251.7	0.0275936	18.9636	0.976694	−0.0265	0.0007729	139.89
(13, 1, 1)	−249.7	0.0275964	19.9591	0.976451	−0.0274	0.0007731	139.89